The daily news about falling oil prices is the beginning of a major shift in the global economy: the end of the “commodity supercycle”, the idea that the rise of emerging markets led by China would continue to drive up prices for oil and other commodities, from copper to corn. Its end spells trouble for the many companies and countries, such as Brazil and Russia, that have prospered in the past decade from the sale of raw materials to China. It also spells relief for commodity importing countries, from the US to Turkey.
每天都傳來的油價下跌的訊息,這標誌着全球經濟開始出現一種重大的變化:「大宗商品超級週期」走到了盡頭。這個術語的含義是,以中國爲首的新興市場國家的崛起,將持續推高石油、銅和玉米等大宗商品的價格。這個週期的結束,給許多企業和國家(如巴西和俄羅斯)帶來了麻煩——它們在過去十年裏因向中國出售原材料而經歷了蓬勃發展。另一方面,這個週期的結束也讓從美國到土耳其等大宗商品進口國鬆了一口氣。