Global financial markets are being whipsawed by two events at opposite ends of the globe: the risk of Greece’s exit from the euro area (“Grexit”) and the potential scale of China’s economic slowdown. Grexit is transparent and easy to monitor – but also increasingly likely (we assign a 50-75 per cent probability).
By contrast, China’s economic slowdown and resultant policy reaction is opaque – but also avoidable, in our view. Which to worry about more?
The opacity of China’s economic situation arises more on the policy response than the economic data.
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