It had been a deceptively mild end to the winter for the eurozone’s economy. Bountiful showers of money from the European Central Bank helped to lower yields on Spanish and Italian bonds. Equity markets were temporarily soothed and some commentators had even started speculating about the first shoots of recovery appearing with the spring.
Reality, however, has been much harsher. In February, the jobless count across the 17-country bloc rose for the tenth consecutive month, reaching 10.8 per cent. Unemployment in Spain is close to 24 per cent – with youth unemployment going above 50 per cent. Forward-looking purchasing managers indices have remained weak in some parts of Europe.
These figures should not surprise. The mantra of austerity and its resulting ritual – the fiscal compact – were bound to create short-term misery, particularly in the eurozone’s periphery. Fiscal hawks would argue this is the price to pay for the profligacy of the recent past.