How do you say “Greenspan put” in Chinese? Gelinsepan dui’ce. But no matter: China continues to signal that it does not intend its monetary policy to be the hostage to growth that it has become in the west. China has said its economy will grow 7.5 per cent this year – its lowest target in eight years. The news dented China’s banks, which had been rallying on expectations that monetary policy would be loosened to maintain growth and confidence, as Greenspan did when chairman of the Federal Reserve.
China’s big four banks – ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China – had been outperforming the Hang Seng index by 10 per cent this year. Following yesterday’s growth announcement, the four broke the winning streak, falling by an average 2 per cent – two-fifths more than the index. A slower economy means slower loan growth. For these banks, lending is still their bread and butter: three quarters of ICBC’s operating revenues came from these means in the past nine months. Net interest margins, which averaged a decent 2.5 per cent last year at the top four, could come under pressure as demand to borrow for things such as working capital falters. Mortgage rates have already started to come down in an effort to boost business.
More of a concern, though, is the impact of slower growth on fee and commission income. This has been growing at a faster pace than net interest income in recent years. At ICBC, for example, fee income grew twice as fast as net interest income in the last nine months from a year earlier. A softer economy will hurt banks’ ability to maintain the 40 per cent growth in income in this segment from services such as card fees and advisory services this year.