The Office for Budgetary Responsibility is a welcome innovation within the UK policymaking framework. Too often governments have manipulated the numbers. The OBR should end such finagling. More important, it should end the fear of such finagling. Greater confidence in the probity of official forecasts is a public good. Yet it is crucial to distinguish probity from correctness. The OBR is honest and competent. How could it be otherwise with my former colleague Robert Chote at its head? But it might still be wrong. Economists just do not know very much.
在英國的政策制定框架內，預算責任辦公室(Office of Budget Responsibility，簡稱OBR)是一個受歡迎的創新。在太多情況下，政府操縱了數據。OBR應該結束這種欺騙性的做法。更重要的是，它應該終結人們對這種欺騙的擔憂。人們對官方預測誠信度的信心增強，符合公衆的利益。但有一點至關重要：誠信不等於正確。OBR是誠實且富有能力的。有我以前的同事羅伯特•喬特(Robert Chote)的領導，它怎麼可能不這樣呢？但它仍然有可能出錯。經濟學家就是所知甚少。