專欄歐元區

The euro is still far from out of danger
歐元危機遠未解除


FT專欄作家塞繆爾•布里坦:在最新的希臘救援方案出臺之後,歐元區有20%的可能進行聯邦式改革,25%至30%的可能解體,但繼續勉強維持的可能性仍然最大。

During an enforced absence from column writing I tried to keep up with events – not so much by reading the vast number of books, analyses and speeches, which would have been incompatible with eating and sleeping, but by reflecting on what might have happened if Greece had not joined the euro in 2001. Similar reflections might apply to other peripherals such as Portugal but might need modification in relation to Spain, Italy and Ireland.

在被迫中止專欄撰稿期間,我試圖跟上時事的發展——不是通過閱讀大量的書籍、分析和演講稿(那會影響喫飯和睡覺),而是通過思考一件事:假如希臘在2001年沒有加入歐元區會怎樣。類似的思考或許也適用於其他外圍國家,比如葡萄牙,但涉及西班牙、義大利和愛爾蘭時則需要進行一些修正。

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