No WEO in the WEO. The World Economic Outlook has no trace of Wild Economic Optimism. Still, the conclusion of the International Monetary Fund’s latest report is basically cheerful: “Global activity seems set to accelerate again.”
Fair enough. Prospects for what is arguably the most important measure of world economic health – growth in global gross domestic product – look sturdy (4.4 and 4.5 per cent in 2011 and 2012 respectively). The growth is especially high where it has the potential to do the most good – in poorer countries (6.5 per cent in both years). The forecasts have not changed since January: a reassuring consistency. That suggests that the economic machine is whirring away as it should.
But while GDP looks good, many other measures still raise concern, especially in developed nations. The WEO focuses on four. Unemployment rates are still 4 and 1.5 percentage points above the pre-crisis, six-year average in the US and the European Union respectively. Financial normality is a distant dream: the fiscal debt load is still rising in rich countries (it is falling in developing nations), and real policy interest rates remain negative in most of the world. Commodity prices have risen too fast and too far for comfort. Demand imbalances distort investments and create mountains of foreign currency reserves.