It has become a truism, buttressed by the hard realities of economic performance, that the 21st century will belong to Asia. But there is a big problem to overcome first, and it is not the flashpoints in North Korea, the Taiwan Straits and Kashmir. It is the region's dangerous pace of population growth, and the health, environmental and security problems caused by urbanisation on a scale unique in human history.
The United Nations is forecasting that the world's population will rise by more than 40 per cent to 9.3bn by 2050, with the proportion living in cities increasing to 70 per cent from slightly more than 50 per cent today. But the impact will be concentrated in Asia, where two-thirds of the world's population lives, and where rapid economic growth is accelerating the natural process of urbanisation. While Europe is dealing with the problems of ageing, Asia (excluding Japan) will be trying to cope with a rush to the cities estimated at nearly 140,000 people a day.
How well it succeeds will have a huge impact on whether this really does turn out to be the Asian century. So far, the signs are not good. About 550m people are living in slums and squatter settlements in the region, according to Anna Tibaijuka, head of Habitat, the UN agency responsible for the built environment. That is about 55 per cent of the global total, and it stems directly from a headlong rush for development that has largely ignored the consequences of growth.