專欄恐慌心理

HOW OUR LEADERS GET TO GRIPS WITH A SCARE STORY

Do you remember swine flu? Or the millennium bug? The dangers of salmonella in eggs or of cheese made from unpasteurised milk? These scare stories played for a time and were then forgotten: but cost large amounts of money and caused anxiety and loss to many individuals.

Some scares catch on: others do not. It is nonsense to claim that the dangers of the credit expansion of 2003-07 could not have been foreseen; those who did foresee problems could not attract public attention or political support for their views. Those warning of the danger of easy availability of nuclear technology and of poor control of the former Soviet Union's nuclear weapons have experienced something similar.

Successful promotion of a scare requires that some interest group benefits. Sometimes this is the scare-promoters themselves. Scientists have learnt that exaggerated claims are a route to a media profile and research funding. There is little downside in predicting disaster: if it does not materialise they can claim to have been instrumental in staving it off. Scares that thrive, such as the millennium bug and swine flu, have commercial interests that benefit from their propagation. Naysayers in the credit boom, by contrast, were trampled in the rush to share the riches available to those who denied or disregarded the dangers.

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約翰•凱

約翰•凱(John Kay)從1995年開始爲英國《金融時報》撰寫經濟和商業的專欄。他曾經任教於倫敦商學院和牛津大學。目前他在倫敦經濟學院擔任訪問學者。他有著非常輝煌的從商經歷,曾經創辦和壯大了一家諮詢公司,然後將其轉售。約翰•凱著述甚豐,其中包括《企業成功的基礎》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市場的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投資指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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