Policymakers have responded to successive economic downturns in essentially the same Keynesian way since the 1950s. Fiscal deficits have been allowed to rise and interest rates to fall to stimulate aggregate demand. Though Keynes hardly anticipated such repeated use of macro instruments, these policies have worked. As a result, the policy response to the current crisis has been “more of the same”. Many policymakers remain confident that this will eventually generate a sustained recovery. Yet it is worth reflecting on why it might not work this time, and what other public policies might help foster recovery. In short, what is Plan B?
自上世紀50年代以來，政策制定者應對接連不斷的經濟低迷的方式，本質上都是同樣的凱恩斯(Keynes)主義。他們允許財政赤字擴大，並通過降息刺激總需求。儘管凱恩斯幾乎沒有預見到宏觀工具會被如此重複地使用，但這些政策的確奏效了。因此，當前這場危機的應對政策「幾乎大同小異」。許多政策制定者仍然相信，這些政策最終將創造持續的復甦。不過，我們有必要反思一下，爲何它們這次有可能失效，以及還有什麼其它公共政策可能有助於推動復甦。簡言之，什麼是B計劃（即「備用方案」）？