Pop the champagne! There is a good chance that the US recession ended in June, says Capital Economics. Fully 27 of the 28 leading indicators tracked by the research outfit are above trough levels, with hours worked and exports the latest to improve. True, the signposts pointing most prominently to recovery – the ISM survey of sentiment and the stock market – are confidence based, suggesting a circularity to the sense of optimism. But it seems safe to assume that the worst has passed. Drink your bubbly quickly though, because contemplating the nature of the recovery may spoil the mood.
開香檳慶賀吧！倫敦資本經濟(Capital Economics)稱，美國經濟衰退很有可能在6月份已經止步。在該研究機構追蹤的28個領先指標中，足足有27個走出了谷底，其中工作時間和出口是兩個新近轉好的指標。誠然，最明顯指向復甦的指標——美國供應管理學會(ISM)對人氣和股市的調查——是以信心爲基礎的，表明樂觀情緒出現回升。但最糟糕情況已經過去的猜想似乎是安全的。不過，還是趕快喝掉手中的香檳吧，因爲思考復甦的本質可能會破壞情緒。