The inventory cycle is a powerful phenomenon. Will it deliver a recovery?
The logic is strong and straightforward. As businesses reacted to the global shock to demand after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, their inventories were far in excess of what was needed to satisfy incoming new orders, so they slammed on the brakes with lay-offs and cutbacks in production.
The shock was so sudden, and the ensuing cutbacks so extreme, that many predicted that the cycle would take another turn. Only a moderate recovery in new orders could catch businesses without enough stock to satisfy the demand. That would force them into restocking and, in so doing, boost their output. Just as markets can over-correct, so can businesses.
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