There is a good economic rationale for China's wanting to keep the renminbi/dollar rate stable. First, as long as the fixed rate is credible - as it was between 1995 and 2004 at 8.28 yuan per dollar - it served as an effective monetary anchor for China's internal price level. After inflation had exploded to over 20 per cent per year in 1993-95, the fixed-rate anchor helped China regain price-level stability. Second, the big fiscal stimulus which Mr Wen is now contemplating would be most effective if China's exchange rate is kept stable - as it has been since last July.
對中國來說，保持人民幣兌美元匯率穩定有充分的經濟理由。首先，只要固定匯率是可信的——就像1995年至2004年間維持在1美元兌8.28元人民幣那樣，它就可以有效地充當中國國內價格水準的「貨幣錨」(monetary anchor)。在1993至1995年通貨膨脹猛升至逾20%之後，固定匯率「錨」有助於中國物價恢復穩定。其次，如果人民幣匯率保持穩定（事實上自去年7月以來便一直如此），那麼溫先生正在考慮的大規模財政刺激計劃將發揮出最大效果。