One of the trickiest challenges for any honest investor is trying to work out whether they are lucky or smart. Is their successful trading strategy the equivalent of a coin toss coming up heads five times in a row? Or is it the result of superior insight or execution? Human nature (and fee structures) being what they are, most investors prefer the latter explanation. In truth, it is often hard to tell.
對於任何誠實的投資者來說，最棘手的挑戰之一，就是要弄清楚自己的成功究竟是源於運氣，還是源於智慧。他們的成功交易策略，是不是就像連續五次拋硬幣都正面朝上一樣純屬偶然？還是說，這是卓越洞察力或執行力的結果？受人性（以及收費結構）的影響，大多數投資者更願意相信後者。事實上，這兩者往往難以分辨。
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