Here’s the problem with forecasts: some of them are right, and some of them are wrong, and by the time we find out which is which, it’s too late.
This leads to what we might call the forecasting paradox: the test of a useful forecast is not whether it turns out to be accurate, but whether it turns out to prompt some sort of useful action in advance. Accuracy may help, but then again it may not. Forewarned is not necessarily forearmed.
Consider the challenge I was set when speaking at a post-pandemic conference. One questioner told me that at the previous conference, in late 2019, the keynote speaker — a famous scientist — had warned of the risk of a global pandemic. Could I offer a better forecast than that?
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