Gordon Moore’s famous prediction about computing power must count as one of the most astonishingly accurate forecasts in history. But it may also have been badly misunderstood — in a way that now looks like a near-catastrophic missed opportunity. If we had grasped the details behind Moore’s Law in the 1980s, we could be living with an abundance of clean energy by now. We fumbled it.
A refresher on Moore’s Law: in 1965, electronics engineer Gordon Moore published an article noting that the number of components that could efficiently be put on an integrated circuit was roughly doubling every year. “Over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not increase,” he wrote. “There is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means, by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000.”
That component number is now well into the billions. Moore adjusted his prediction in 1975 to doubling every two years, and the revised law has remained broadly true ever since, not only for the density of computer components but for the cost, speed and power consumption of computation itself. The question is, why? The way Moore formulated the law, it was just something that happened: the sun rises and sets, the leaves that are green turn to brown, and computers get faster and cheaper. But there’s another way to describe technological progress, and it might be better if we talked less about Moore’s Law, and more about Wright’s Law.