臥底經濟學家

Fossil fuels could have been left in the dust 25 years ago
化石燃料本可以在25年前就被拋在塵土中

If only we’d followed Wright’s Law, solar tech could have been cheaper much sooner
如果我們早點遵循萊特定律,太陽能技術本來可以更快實現低成本化。

Gordon Moore’s famous prediction about computing power must count as one of the most astonishingly accurate forecasts in history. But it may also have been badly misunderstood — in a way that now looks like a near-catastrophic missed opportunity. If we had grasped the details behind Moore’s Law in the 1980s, we could be living with an abundance of clean energy by now. We fumbled it.

高登•摩爾(Gordon Moore)對計算能力的著名預測無疑是歷史上最準確且驚人的預測之一。然而,它可能被嚴重誤解,現在看來,這幾乎是一次災難性的錯失良機。如果我們在20世紀80年代就能深入理解摩爾定律的細節,我們現在可能已經享受著乾淨能源的豐富。可惜,我們失誤了。

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