The writer is executive director of the Aspen Security Forum and a former US government officialNewspaper headlines regularly herald the stunning breakthroughs of the leading frontier large language models in artificial intelligence. Much less discussed, however, is that underneath these feats of technology lie ever larger “training runs”. These train algorithms on massive data sets. To do so requires thousands of expensive advanced semiconductor chips and a startling amount of electricity.
The growth of US and UK AI companies will eventually be constrained by the lack of sufficient computing and electrical power which, if not remedied urgently, may force them to locate important facilities and capabilities in other countries. This is about to unleash a frantic global scramble for financial subsidies, both for the most advanced chips and, especially, for low-cost electricity.
Geopolitical competition will become intense between a US- and UK-centric AI ecosystem and a China-centric one. Wealthy middle powers without clear allegiance to either, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will have substantial sway.