In less than six months, Covid-19 has transformed the world. But what might its impact ultimately be? Our ignorance on this is quite comprehensive. But it is far from absolute. So let us take stock.
The world was, we must remember, troubled even before the pandemic. Only 12 years ago, the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s shook the global economy. Affected by how that was handled, the subsequent economic malaise and the perception that capitalism was rigged against them, the public in a number of high-income countries became angry.
This anger revealed itself in the UK’s Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016. The latter, in turn, shifted the US in favour of protectionism. This change in the American view of the world was accelerated by the transformation of China into an assertive superpower. What many have dubbed “a new cold war” began.