The new strain of coronavirus originating from the Chinese city of Wuhan has rattled markets as much as it has global health authorities. Chinese stocks opened 9 per cent lower on Monday morning, the worst opening for 15 years. Equity prices worldwide have felt the aftershocks and the long term yield on US treasuries briefly fell below the short term yield — a potential warning signal of global recession.
Not even trained epidemiologists can predict how the virus will spread. The uncertainty and febrile atmosphere is taking a financial toll. Low interest rates, cheap money and hopes for the global economy after the signing of a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China had helped bid up equity valuations. With such optimistic pricing it does not take much of a hit to confidence for prices to take a dip — as they already did after last month’s assassination of Iran’s top general by the US.
Perhaps more worrying for the global economy and investors than the direct impact of the virus, however, has been the response from the Chinese authorities. Shutting down large parts of what is now, on some measures, the world’s largest economy will have a knock-on effect elsewhere — particularly those countries with the strongest trade links. Hong Kong’s main index has fallen 5 per cent over the last five trading days while while the main Taiwanese index has fallen 7 per cent.