Trying to predict a recession is a fool’s game. Expansions don’t die of old age. Various hard-to-predict accidents can put an end to them. A trade war — like the Smoot-Hawley tariff spiral in the 1930s — could be one such accident. The question is not when, but how, a recession plays out. And the policy response is key to the answer.
試圖預測一場衰退是否即將來臨是不明智的。擴張不會「壽終正寢」。各種難以預測的意外都可能把它斷送。一場貿易戰(例如上世紀30年代的斯穆特-霍利(Smoot-Hawley)關稅法案事件)可能就是這樣的意外。問題不是衰退何時開始,而是衰退大戲會如何展開。而政策回應是這個答案的關鍵。
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