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Whether oil prices rise or fall, there will always be a loser
油價是漲是跌都有輸家


湯普森:川普可能如願看到油價走低,不是因爲他可以通過Twitter要求歐佩克生產更多石油,而是高油價自會削減需求。

For the past decade, oil prices have caused trouble whether they have been rising or falling. There is no level that does not pose a problem for either consumers or some producers. Venezuela, for example, has been a spectacular casualty of the low prices of 2015 and early 2016. The beginnings of the 2007-9 recessions in many countries were accompanied by extremely high prices that approached $150 a barrel in June 2008. In political terms, American elections are not readily won with West Texas Intermediate, the US standard, at $75 and rising, and oil-dependent Saudi Arabia’s budget becomes severely strained when Brent falls below $70.

過去十年,無論油價是漲是跌,都會造成麻煩。無論油價處於何種水準,要麼令消費者心煩,要麼讓部分產油國頭疼。例如,委內瑞拉就是2015年至2016年初油價下跌的嚴重受害者。很多國家在2007-09年經歷的衰退在剛開始時伴隨著油價高企——到2008年6月接近150美元/桶。在政治方面,當美國基準油價西德克薩斯中質油(West Texas Intermediate)處於75美元/桶並持續上漲時,想在美國大選中獲勝沒那麼容易;而當布倫特(Brent)油價跌至70美元/桶以下時,依賴石油的沙烏地阿拉伯的預算會變得非常緊張。

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