Wanted: new hegemon for the global trading system. Must have: serious economic heft, a reasonably united and far-sighted domestic constituency and strong commitment to multilateral rules. The next round of interviews will be held at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada. (Incidentally, entre nous, whatever you may have heard, the last occupant of the post wasn’t entirely a model employee: see further down for details.)
The HR director for globalisation is destined for disappointment: this position will remain unfilled for the foreseeable future. Donald Trump has turned the US from the anchor of the world economy to its wrecking ball in record time. But the only two possible contenders big enough to take over are China and the EU, and each fails one of the job specifications. The former, whatever speeches President Xi Jinping gives at Davos, is bent on establishing its dominance in a range of low- and high-tech fields by almost any means necessary, breaking rules it deems inconvenient and, more importantly, preventing new international regulations emerging to stop it.
That leaves the EU, whose problems lie with the second criterion, its domestic constituency. As it happens, the extraordinarily clodhopping nature of Mr Trump’s policies accidentally helped to maintain internal unity between EU member states. Germany was keen to dangle various incentives in front of the US, including a possible trade deal covering only industrial goods, to forestall the threatened steel and aluminium tariffs. This would render unnecessary the retaliation the EU had already threatened and prevent the trade war spreading to Germany’s precious car industry.