The terracotta army of China bulls is back. It is more than a year since the Chinese economy started to show a sharp turnround. At that point, investors were braced for an economic “hard landing” and a currency devaluation. The turnround since then had its most direct effect on the stocks of the western companies most exposed to China for their revenues, and on the prices of commodities that China buys.
That sentiment has at last reached international investors. Last month, for the first time in three years, China enjoyed net inflows of capital, rather than outflows, according to the International Institute of Finance. China continues to dominate inflows to emerging markets. EM stocks are up 41 per cent since last January’s lows. Meanwhile, EM bond issuance hit an all-time record in this quarter while their currencies also enjoyed a great rebound, as fears recede that an “America First” US would inflict damage on global trade.
These numbers ratify in cold dollars and cents a victory for optimists on China. In the very long term, it will grow; few deny that. But there are reasons to fear that the message about China’s latest credit-driven resurgence has been received just in time for that resurgence to peak and go into reverse.