A year ago China celebrated a victory in its battle to win global status for its currency. The International Monetary Fund’s decision to include the renminbi in its basket of reserve currencies was a success for reform-minded officials, who had used the prestige of inclusion alongside the dollar, euro, yen and sterling to persuade the Communist party leadership to accept market reforms.
Events since have made the IMF’s judgment that the renminbi was “freely usable” seem a stretch. For the previous decade, the currency’s relentless appreciation had helped draw foreign capital to China. Now concerns over slowing growth, a mountain of corporate debt, recurring asset price bubbles and President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive are fuelling a capital exodus.
There has been an estimated net outflow of about $530bn in the year to October. Beijing has responded with ad hoc capital controls and market interventions limiting the renminbi’s decline. The result: a grinding depreciation, giving companies and individuals yet more reason to pull money out.