The world economy is slowing, both structurally and cyclically. How might policy respond? With desperate improvisations, no doubt. Negative interest rates have already moved from the unthinkable to reality. The next step is likely to include fiscal expansion. Indeed, this is what the OECD, long an enthusiast for fiscal austerity, recommends in its Interim Economic Outlook. But that is unlikely to be the end. With fiscal expansion might go direct monetary support, including the most radical policy of all: the “helicopter drops” of money recommended by the late Milton Friedman.
世界經濟正在放緩——既是結構性的，也是週期性的。政策或將會如何應對？毫無疑問，只能依靠不顧一切臨時拼湊出的各種措施。負利率早已從天方夜譚變爲現實。下一步很可能要實施財政擴張。實際上，這正是經合組織(OECD)——財政緊縮政策的長期擁護者——在其《年中經濟展望》(Interim Economic Outlook)中給出的建議。但這可能還不算完，在推出擴張性財政政策的同時，可能還會出臺直接的資金支持，包括所有政策之中最激進的政策——已故經濟學家米爾頓•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)建議的「直升機撒錢」(helicopter drops)。