Two weeks ago, I argued that a Federal Reserve decision to raise rates in September would be a serious mistake. As I wrote my column, the market was assigning a 50 per cent chance to a rate hike. The current chance is 34 per cent. Having followed the debate among economists and Fed governors and bank presidents I believe the case against a rate increase has become somewhat more compelling even than it looked two weeks ago.
兩週前，我提出，如果美聯準(Fed)決定在今年9月加息，那將是一個嚴重的錯誤。在我寫下那篇專欄文章之際，市場認爲美聯準加息的可能性有50%。現在的可能性是34%。在關注了經濟學家、美聯準理事以及銀行行長們的辯論之後，我相信不加息的理由甚至比兩週前更爲充分。
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