Shifting trade patterns, cheaper oil and a slowing Chinese economy are helping to shake up the league table of Asian growth, with the Philippines and Vietnam joining India as the region’s pacesetters, and Indonesia and Thailand falling to the bottom of the class.
Although the World Bank expects China to remain Asia’s fastest-growing economy until 2017, many private sector analysts believe India will outpace its neighbour as soon as this year.
Lower oil prices have given the Reserve Bank of India greater freedom to cut interest rates and lessened the threat posed by the country’s stubborn current account deficit. There is also hope that the pro-business government of Narendra Modi will be able to unlock India’s economic potential, just as China’s multi-decade boom begins to fade.