If Guy Debelle was a hedge fund trader, he might have made a killing this week. Three days ago Mr Debelle – a top official at Australia’s central bank – predicted that markets were heading for wild volatility, since investors were naive about structural risks. A “sizeable” number of them, he observed, probably presumed that they could exit their positions before any sell-off. “History tells us that this is generally not a successful strategy,” he warned. “The exits tend to get jammed unexpectedly and rapidly.”
假如蓋伊•德貝兒(Guy Debelle)是一名對沖基金經理，那麼本週他已經大賺了一筆。三天前，這名澳洲央行的高官預言，由於投資者對結構性風險缺乏認識，市場將出現劇烈的波動。他表示，數量「可觀的」投資者很可能認爲，他們能在發生任何拋售前退出自己的頭寸。「歷史告訴我們，這一策略總體上是不成功的，」他警告稱，「出口往往很快就會變得出人意料的擁擠。」
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