Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, is a man of conviction. But even he must have had a moment of self-doubt yesterday when it emerged that Japan grew by an annualised 1 per cent only in the last three months of 2013, less than half of what analysts expected. Some will surely see these disappointing numbers as a sign that Abenomics, the prime minister’s mix of fiscal, monetary and supply-side policies aimed at revitalising the economy, is coming off the rails. But while this judgment is probably too hasty, Mr Abe and Japan’s corporations must act soon to stop the recovery coming to a grinding halt.
The primary objective of Abenomics was to return Japan to inflation after a decade and a half of falling prices. So far, the results are encouraging. Thanks to the copious programme of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan, core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, jumped by 1.3 per cent in December, the fastest pace in five years. The BoJ is on track to meet its 2 per cent inflation target – set for 2015.
Nor were the growth figures reported this week too negative. Consumer spending and business investment grew faster than in the third quarter – a sign that domestic demand is not in retreat. The bad news came mainly from trade, with imports significantly outpacing exports in spite of a falling yen. Overall, Japan expanded by a respectable 1.6 per cent in 2013, the fastest rate in three years.