What are the six most significant things to have happened in Asia this year? The question is entirely arbitrary. Why six? What counts as significant? And, while we’re at it, what on earth do we mean by Asia, a term that has been used to refer to the “lands east of Europe” since Herodotus? But it’s nearly Christmas, so let’s press on. We’ll define Asia in the way the Financial Times does, broadly the region from the Indian subcontinent to Australia. That is a set of nations containing almost 4bn people, more than half the world’s population. “Significant” for our purposes means something that will affect a large number of people for many years, a definition that excludes interesting developments in small countries.
This year had its share of tragedy. Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 6,000 people in the Philippines alone. Then there was the fallout from the grotesque rape and murder of a 23-year-old student in India, which trained a spotlight on the long-ignored issue of violence against women. In an altogether different realm, the assertion by Kevin Rudd, then Australian prime minister, that the commodities boom was over, crystallised concern that the China-fuelled supercycle had run its course. Other possible contenders were Alibaba’s abandonment of its $60bn-plus initial public offering after Hong Kong authorities refused to bend rules on corporate boards; a renewed outbreak of turmoil in Thailand (déjà vu); and the first civilian transfer of power in Pakistan, albeit only to make Nawaz Sharif prime minister for a third time (déjà vu again).
So, drum roll please, the six most important events are: Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power. Until this year, the Chinese leadership was becoming ever more collective. China’s new president has reversed all that. He launched an anti-corruption drive that has dismayed luxury brand makers, terrified party cadres and affected previous “untouchables”, including Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the standing committee. Mr Xi is shaping up to be the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping. That makes him secure enough to undertake radical reform aimed at addressing severe inefficiencies in China’s economy, mainly by allowing market forces a bigger role. Abroad, Mr Xi seems much less reticent about asserting China’s power.