For all their circumlocutions and mind-numbing syntax, minutes from central bank meetings still have the power to move markets. This week, stocks tumbled after it emerged that the US Federal Reserve is considering options to offset a possible slowing of its asset purchases. Investors took this speculative discussion as a sign that “tapering” is imminent. The era of ultra-low interest rates, so the fear goes, may soon end.
As is often the case with markets, this was almost certainly an overreaction. This week saw the US Senate banking committee give its nod to the nomination of Janet Yellen as the new Fed chief. Ms Yellen, whose candidacy is expected to receive the Senate’s final approval before the end of the year, has repeatedly stated that the US economy is still too fragile for the Fed to withdraw its stimulus. Anyway, the central bank has committed to keep its policy rate near zero until unemployment falls to 6.5 per cent (it stood at 7.3 per cent in October). It will take time before the Fed begins closing the monetary taps.
While the Fed is likely to keep its monetary policy loose, the composition of the stimulus may change. One option is to slow down quantitative easing and, at the same time, lower the interest rate paid on the reserves that lenders park with the central bank from 0.25 per cent. From an economic point of view, this should not make much of a difference. Politically, however, paying less money to the banks may be more palatable than QE, which some in the Republican party regard as reckless money-printing.