Atonement is complicated. JPMorgan has reached a tentative settlement of state and federal investigations over the sale of mortgage-backed securities that were at the heart of the financial crisis. The deal is positive for investors in that it would quantify the cost of this settlement with US regulators (JPMorgan faces a litany of other investigations) and represent a big step toward putting this issue behind the bank. But investors want certainty. To that end, the final deal may fall short of resolving the mortgage overhang for JPMorgan.
The bank is poised to pay $13bn – $2bn more than earlier expectations, a record fine and the equivalent of JPMorgan’s net profits for the first half of 2013. It is a huge number, but JPMorgan has already taken a $9.2bn legal charge in the third quarter and, as such, experienced the first quarterly loss under boss Jamie Dimon. Much of that expense was attributed these lawsuits. To its credit, the bank also made the unusual move of divulging its legal reserves - $23bn – to help clarify the extent to which future settlements could dent future profits.
The nitty gritty of the final terms will be as imporant as the headline number, however. Although the details have yet to be finalised, the deal would appear to resolve all the civil, but not the criminal allegations. The bank also is expected to admit some wrongdoing, possibly opening the door for private litigants.