Almost three years ago, at the World Economic Forum’s “Summer Davos”, in Tianjin, I heard a Republican politician say that the US would be in hyperinflation within two years. I was stunned. Yet a large number of people believe that hyperinflation is coming. If the US is in trouble, so, surely, is the UK. Is there anything in such predictions? The answer is: possibly, in the very long run. At present, however, the risk is that inflation may be too low, not too high. Paradoxically, that increases inflation risk in the long run.
將近三年前，在世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)之天津「夏季達佛斯」上，我聽到一位共和黨政客說，美國將會在兩年內陷入惡性通膨。我感到非常喫驚。然而，很多人都認爲惡性通膨正在到來。如果美國有麻煩，那麼英國也在劫難逃。那麼這樣的預言有沒有道理呢？答案就是：從超長期來看，有可能。但目前的風險是通膨過低而不是過高。而矛盾的是，正是這種情形增加了長期的通膨風險。
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