Perhaps it is the blossom in the air. But Washington may be about to agree on an overhaul of America’s dilapidated immigration system. A final deal is not yet complete. However, the bipartisan “group of eight” senators to whom the White House has outsourced negotiations is confident there will be a draft soon. The prospect should be welcomed. At the very least, it would reassure us that Washington is capable of taking a break from its chronic dysfunction. However, doubts remain whether a bill could get through the Republican House of Representatives. And concerns also remain on whether the bill would do enough to lift high-skilled immigration.
First, the bill’s big positives. Since the 2007 recession, the great wave of Mexican immigration to the US has broken. It has dropped from a roughly 500,000 annual inflow a decade ago to zero in the past three years. Mexico’s rising economic prospects and declining population growth suggest that shift may be for keeps. Now is an ideal time to redress the status of the 11m undocumented Hispanics in the US. Enough Republicans have signed up to the “pathway to citizenship” to suggest Washington may finally be about to grasp the nettle. It would be a big breakthrough at a time of increasingly dynamic US economic relations with Mexico. It would also help to put a floor under the low-wage portions of the US economy.
The other side of any package will be a deal to beef up security along the 2,000 mile US-Mexico border. Much of this may be superfluous. In the past four years, President Barack Obama’s administration has stepped up security and increased deportations (which, at 1.5m is more than Messrs Bush and Clinton combined). The quiet success of Mr Obama’s enforcement regime has helped to improve the climate in Washington to agree on a 10-year pathway to citizenship. So far, few Republicans have cried “amnesty”. In addition, the growing violence of the Mexican drugs cartels is justification alone for the tougher US security. In the past few years, El Paso, the Texan border town, has gone from being one of the least safe US cities to being one of its safest. This is a gain worth consolidating.