專欄巴菲特

Even on subpar form, the Sage is simply genius

Has the Sage of Omaha, now 82, lost his touch? In his annual letter to the stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway published last week, Warren Buffett admitted a “subpar” performance in 2012. He acknowledged that his next annual letter may show that, for the first time, his fund had underperformed the S&P index over a five-year period.

This year’s “subpar” performance represented an increase in the net asset value of his fund of only 14.4 per cent, 1.6 per cent less than the rise in the more excitable S&P. The anticipated deficiency in the 2009-13 result will arise because the figures for 2008 (when the index plunged but Berkshire’s NAV fell only modestly) will drop out of the five-year average. Meanwhile, the data for 2009 (when the index partially recovered but the Berkshire portfolio did not regain the value it had never shed) will remain in the calculation.

It seems that even Mr Buffett is being dragged into the wealth-destroying trap of judging investment skill by relative performance. In these terms, 1999 was his worst ever year. But his underperformance was a measure, not a criticism, of his skill. His rivals, seduced by fantasies of the “new economy”, would within a short time mostly relinquish more than all the gains they had made. I would not entrust a penny to a fund manager who did not underperform the market in 1999.

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約翰•凱

約翰•凱(John Kay)從1995年開始爲英國《金融時報》撰寫經濟和商業的專欄。他曾經任教於倫敦商學院和牛津大學。目前他在倫敦經濟學院擔任訪問學者。他有著非常輝煌的從商經歷,曾經創辦和壯大了一家諮詢公司,然後將其轉售。約翰•凱著述甚豐,其中包括《企業成功的基礎》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市場的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投資指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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