專欄財政

The harmful myth of the balanced budget

So you think it only common sense that a government budget, like that of a family, should balance? But what do you mean by balance? In Britain, for example, the last estimate prepared for the Treasury by the Office for Budget Responsibility says the government’s current deficit in 2012-13 will be £95bn and its net borrowing £92bn.

As percentages of gross domestic product these come to 5.8 per cent and 6 per cent respectively. But do not think this is the end of the matter. Another item entitled “cyclically adjusted current balance” is put at 4.2 per cent.

Then there is, probably the most important, the primary deficit – roughly how far the government is from reducing its debt. This is put at 3.2 per cent and in its cyclically adjusted form at 1.3 per cent. And if you have not had enough numbers you will find a 5.9 per cent estimate for the deficit under Maastricht treaty definitions.

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