An Italian court’s conviction of six scientists and an ex-official for giving inadequate information to the city of l’Aquila just before it was devastated by an earthquake has been compared with the papal condemnation of Galileo in 1633. The judge stands accused of ignoring the scientific truth that earthquakes cannot be predicted, and of seeking scapegoats to appease the embittered population.
To be fair to the court, this is a misrepresentation of its verdict. The magistrate acknowledged that earthquakes cannot be predicted. However, he found the defendants had painted an overly reassuring picture to calm a panicking population. This position was taken after an official meeting held only a few days before the earthquake, and following months of tremors in the region.
The defendants could have been more cautious in their message. One of them stated on TV that there was “no danger” and explained that the tremors were a “favourable situation, that is to say a continuous discharge of energy”. This was scientifically incorrect. While a series of tremors is not normally followed by a disastrous quake, most scientists agree that a seismic sequence increases rather than reduces the probability of one.