China’s economy is slowing. Beijing confirmed as much yesterday when it cut interest rates. It must also know that May economic data due out this weekend will not be pretty. Still, policy will remain piecemeal and less stimulative than during the post-Lehman crisis, as this is not yet a hard landing. China manufactured much of this slowdown. As the first interest rate cut after five rises since 2008 shows, there is still scope to loosen policy further. And China does not need economic growth as badly as before.
Job creation has been at the centre of Beijing’s economic policy for more than three decades. Strong growth and the focus of industrialisation on labour-intensive industries were set to keep citizens working and happy. But as growth looks to dip below the magic 8 per cent (the rate thought necessary to keep China employed), jobs are there, particularly for blue-collar labourers. Employment centres were only able to fill about 70 per cent of positions in May, finds China Confidential. And job supply will improve further as China’s working population as a proportion of the total falls, as it did in 2011 for the first time in more than 40 years.
There are caveats, though, namely China’s xiaobailing, or young white-collar workers. Policy makers remain mindful of their gripes – graduates taking waitressing jobs, or an inability to buy property. They are outspoken (microblogs) and their situation is not helped by some forms of policy loosening. Hence, in spite of the slowdown, the housing ministry confirmed on Wednesday that it would not budge on restrictions in the property market.