It is easy for stockbrokers to sell the story that Asia’s agricultural traders are hitting a rough patch. Mixed first-quarter results this week from Singapore-based Wilmar and Hong Kong’s Noble suggest that sitting on China’s doorstep is no guarantee of riches. Singapore trader Olam’s shares have fallen by a fifth since February. The three companies were meant to be the new threat to ABC – Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge and Cargill – whose results showed signs of recovery in the first quarter.
The problem with the storyline is how different these companies are. Wilmar is the biggest agribusiness in Asia with a market capitalisation of $24bn. It is focused on palm oil and soya. Noble, meanwhile, is a quarter of its size, but more diversified. Only one quarter of its revenue is from agricultural trading; most is from energy. It is the fifth largest distributor of electricity in the US, for example. Olam is a niche trader in cocoa, garlic, milk and tomatoes, among a gazillion other things.
Wilmar’s soya crushing business in China marred its first quarter. Poor expected harvests in South America meant China stocked up: soyabean imports rose by one-fifth in the first quarter. That hurt prices in China, but they have risen elsewhere. Combined with overcapacity, that destroyed Wilmar’s margins. Its soyabean crushing business made a pre-tax loss of $52m in the first quarter. The same time last year it was making up two-fifths of the group’s income before tax. Hence the stock’s 9 per cent drop on Thursday.