China’s economy is changing. Indeed, it has to change, as I argued two weeks ago (“How to blow away China’s gathering storm clouds”, 20 March 2012). The good news is the scale of the external rebalancing. The bad news is that this is at the cost of larger internal imbalances.
China’s balance of payments has been a roller coaster (see charts). Thus, between 2003 and 2007, the current account surplus rose from 2.8 per cent to 10.1 per cent of gross domestic product. The surplus then fell sharply, to 2.9 per cent, by 2011. Over the same period, the share of exports and imports in GDP exploded upwards and then fell once again.
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