The outcome of Iran’s parliamentary elections, which took place last friday, has never been in doubt. The victors will doubtless be drawn from among the constellation of officially-approved fundamentalists. However this is not to say that the contest will be altogether without meaning. Elections in Iran have always been a higher-stakes game that the ritual and rigged plebiscites favoured by many Arab autocracies.
This is, moreover, the first test of public opinion since the presidential contest of 2009 spilled on to the streets of Tehran, leading to the opposition being viciously suppressed by the clerical establishment. It also comes at a time of severe strains at home, with the ruling political class riven by factionalism on a scale not seen since shortly after the Islamic revolution in 1979. Meanwhile, the economy, which has been dislocated by populist measures, faces not only roaring inflation but the threat of international sanctions, including an embargo of the all-important oil sector.
In such circumstances, the clerical establishment under Ayatollah Khamenei has been pinning its hopes on a high turnout to establish legitimacy. But the decision to exclude candidates supportive of the reformist movement, as well as many loyal to the president, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, risks resulting in a near boycott in Iran’s major cities. Far from shoring up the regime, the poll threatens to telegraph its weakness.