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Scotland needs to judge the costs of independence

Scotland is a small country that shares a state with a far bigger one. This is an untidy but, over the centuries, successful relationship. I would be very sad to see it end. Inside the union, the Scots have played a huge role, from the enlightenment to today. England would be vastly worse without them.

Yet, whether I like it or not, Scottish independence is on the agenda. I would make just two points on the process. First, any referendum decision must stand for a generation. Prolonged uncertainty would be costly, above all to the Scots. That is one lesson from the protracted debate over Quebec’s future inside Canada. Second, any referendum should be over a choice between sovereign independence and remaining inside the union. The precise terms of Scotland’s position inside the union is another matter.

If the focus is on independence, the experience of the crisis should transform the debate. This has demonstrated that the results of independence are more complex and perilous than we used to think. This is not to argue that it is infeasible, but that it has implications barely considered even a few years ago.

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馬丁•沃爾夫

馬丁•沃爾夫(Martin Wolf) 是英國《金融時報》副主編及首席經濟評論員。爲嘉獎他對財經新聞作出的傑出貢獻,沃爾夫於2000年榮獲大英帝國勳爵位勳章(CBE)。他是牛津大學納菲爾德學院客座研究員,並被授予劍橋大學聖體學院和牛津經濟政策研究院(Oxonia)院士,同時也是諾丁漢大學特約教授。自1999年和2006年以來,他分別擔任達佛斯(Davos)每年一度「世界經濟論壇」的特邀評委成員和國際傳媒委員會的成員。2006年7月他榮獲諾丁漢大學文學博士;在同年12月他又榮獲倫敦政治經濟學院科學(經濟)博士榮譽教授的稱號。

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