歐元區

Forced borrowing: the WMD of fiscal policy
歐洲應該強迫借貸


巴黎OFCE前任和現任總裁、Generali總裁:歐洲命運未卜,各國政府必須拿出曾在戰爭及和平時期都用得很好的財政武器:強迫借貸,包括強迫納稅人借錢給政府。

A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of sovereign default. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Brussels and Frankfurt, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, French socialists and German Christian Democrats. Churchillian doctors, they prescribe blood, sweat and tears – fiscal consolidation, tax increases and spending cuts. They swear, for the umpteenth time, that they will never surrender: Greece will be saved, Italy and Spain will not be abandoned and the rating of France will not be downgraded. In the face of adversity, they assure us that what cannot be achieved by austerity can be achieved by more austerity. An epidemic of holier-than-thou fiscal virtue is spreading throughout Europe and is fast transforming a series of uncoordinated fiscal retrenchments into a euro-wide contraction with dire implications for growth and employment.

歐洲正被一個幽靈纏身:那就是主權違約的幽靈。舊歐洲的所有大國已組成了一個神聖聯盟,力圖驅趕這個幽靈:布魯塞爾和法蘭克福,德國總理安格拉•梅克爾(Angela Merkel)和法國總統尼古拉•薩科吉(Nicolas Sarkozy),法國社會主義者和德國基督教民主黨人。邱吉爾(Churchill)風格的醫生們開出了混合著血水、汗水和淚水的處方:財政整固、增稅和減支。他們第無數次發誓,自己永遠不會投降:希臘將得到拯救,義大利和西班牙不會被拋棄,而法國的信用評級也不會被調降。在逆境面前,他們向我們保證:通過財政緊縮無法實現的目標,可以通過更多的緊縮來實現。一場假仁假義的財政美德疫情正在整個歐洲地區蔓延,並迅速將一系列不協調的財政緊縮,轉變成一場橫掃歐元區的萎縮,這將對成長和就業造成可怕的影響。

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