專欄臥底經濟學家

In praise of the nowcast

Technology is making it possible to collect and disseminate – in real time – information flowing through computers

Switch on any business TV channel and you’ll be bombarded with scrolling quotes and jagged graphs. It’s all very well if you like to watch that kind of thing, but the flow of financial data can lull us into an illusion: that we understand what is happening in the economy at the moment that it happens. We don’t.

Take those share prices: each one is a miniature forecast of future profits for the company in question. They may or may not be good forecasts, but what they are not is a measure of real economic activity today: the price of shares in BP reflects today’s supply and demand for shares in BP, not today’s supply and demand for petrol.

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臥底經濟學家

蒂姆•哈福德(Tim Harford)是英國《金融時報》的經濟學專欄作家,他撰寫兩個欄目:《親愛的經濟學家》和 《臥底經濟學家》。他寫過一本暢銷書也叫做《臥底經濟學家》,這本書已經被翻譯爲16種語言,他現在正在寫這本書的續集。哈福德也是BBC的一檔節目《相信我,我是經濟學家》(Trust Me, I’m an Economist)的主持人。他同妻子及兩個孩子一起住在倫敦。

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