Ignore the immediate market reaction to the first ever downgrade of US credit – there is bound to be a knee-jerk response. Investors should remember the underlying US fiscal situation is in no worse shape now than it was last Friday just before Standard & Poor’s announced its AA+ rating. The action is merely a trailing indicator of a situation of which investors in the world’s most analysed economy are already well aware. Indeed, since S&P put the US on downgrade alert in April – something that would have triggered a sell-off for any other country – investors in US treasuries have barely batted an eyelid. Yields on 10-year government debt have actually fallen about one-quarter.
不妨忽視市場對於美國主權信用評級首次遭下調的即刻反應——條件反射似的反應肯定會有的。投資者應當記住，美國現在的基本財政狀況並不比上週五標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)宣佈AA+評級之前更糟糕。標普此舉只是一個滯後指標，所反映的情況早已爲這個全球受到最透徹分析的經濟體的投資者所熟知。事實上，自標普在今年4月把美國信用評級前景從穩定下調至負面以來——換做其它任何國家，此舉都必然會引發一場拋售——，美國國債的投資者幾乎連眼皮都沒眨一下。10年期美國國債的收益率居然還下降了大約四分之一。