More than a year after the eurozone first announced support for Greece, the eventual fate of the currency remains uncertain. When it was launched, relatively objective commentators argued that, to be successful, the economic side of union needed a stronger political framework within which to manage the eurozone’s fiscal policies. They have been proved right.
This is not the moment, however, nor is there good reason, to abandon decades of integration in Europe. It remains a huge challenge to complete the project: we are still trying to reconfigure the largest economic space in the world since the US was created. But in a world tilting away from its Atlantic centre of gravity, Europe needs more than ever to maximise its competitive strength and market power.
While it has not been easy to discern the strategy of Europe’s high command in putting out the fire on its periphery, a three-stage response is emerging. First, the haemorrhaging is being stopped through transfusions of liquidity. Second, there is an acceptance, finally, that the problem, certainly in the case of Greece, is one of solvency not liquidity. Quietly, preparations are under way for an orderly debt reconstruction, which is preferable to a disorderly default that would halve Greek living standards and remove any prospect of economic reform and growth. Finally, once the immediate crisis has passed, far-reaching new fiscal interventions and controls will be needed across the whole of Europe that, in effect, will amount to a further major step towards economic and fiscal union.