Europe is slowly but surely falling into the same trap Latin American countries fell into, again and again, during the second half of the last century. The more the authorities try to avoid a currency crisis, banking failures and sovereign default, the more likely such doom becomes. One thing we have learnt from our region’s experience is that piecemeal, time-buying strategies always end up in a messier outcome – and almost always in the messiest possible one.
Very much like past duets of emerging markets with international financial institutions, Greek and European authorities are stuck in an unsustainable strategy of buying time. This creates perpetual recession and increasing unrest in the heavily indebted nations, and a heavier fiscal burden and thus lesser popular support elsewhere in the European Union. It increases, not reduces, the chances of Greece ultimately both defaulting and leaving the currency union – and of further contagion throughout southern Europe.
To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, Greece’s insurmountable debt is no longer Greece’s problem. Nearly 60 per cent of its outstanding sovereign debt is owed to the European Financial Stability Facility, the European Central Bank and non-Greek European banks – that is roughly €200bn. The guardians of European monetary union are now held hostage to Greek taxpayers.