As the Fukushima nuclear reactors continue to buck efforts to bring them under control, Japan’s triple disaster holds a magnifying glass to my country’s vulnerabilities. Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), the operator of the Fukushima plant and one of Japan’s most powerful business interests, has informed my devastated nation that a further six to nine months will be needed to stabilise the facilities, increasing concerns of the risks of disruption to our energy supply.
In these trying times there are many challenges ahead for the government and many reasons for Japanese despair. Already the bond market has begun to rattle over the savagely downgraded Tepco corporate bonds. The fear now is that this will spell the collapse of the Japanese government bond. But as world history amply demonstrates, crisis can breed opportunity. At a recent dinner in Tokyo, senior business leaders posed an intriguing scenario for Japan’s recovery – if not revival: this is the moment for Japan to break with the past and move closer to China.
As one executive at the dinner said, with his supply chain disrupted he had little choice but to expand his business and export base in China. He would also urge his parts suppliers to move to China, he added, as some of their factories had been devastated. Another chimed in: “That’s right. The uncertainty of the energy supply is really the drawback here. You have to keep your production steady to stay in business, and expanding your business in China is a way to do so – whether you like it or not.”