定量寬鬆

OptimISM and pessimISM
Lex專欄:「V」是雙底還是勝利?


ISM指數顯示,在中國的引領下,大型經濟體走出了雷曼兄弟倒閉後的嚴重衰退,實現強勁反彈。但還沒到慶祝勝利的時候,V演變成W前半部分的可能性依然存在。

Is it V for victory? ISM purchasing managers’ surveys from around the world confirm that the biggest economies have followed China’s lead to complete a sharp rebound from their intense post-Lehman recession. Worrying indications in the early summer suggested that the ISM, a reliable indicator of gross domestic product growth, was sliding back towards the 50 level that marks the dividing line between recession and expansion. But now the UK seems never to have had it so good, registering a record 58.1, equal with Germany, while both China and the US are comfortably above 50. Only peripheral eurozone countries such as Spain are still stuck at recessionary levels.

V代表的是勝利嗎?美國供應管理學會(ISM)的全球採購經理人調查證實,在中國的引領下,大型經濟體走出了雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉後的嚴重衰退,實現強勁反彈。夏初之際,諸多令人擔憂的跡象表明,ISM指數(衡量國內生產毛額成長的可靠指標)正逐漸向50滑落——這一讀數標誌着衰退與成長的分界線。但現在英國的狀況看上去好極了,其ISM指數升至創紀錄的58.1,與德國相同,而中國和美國的ISM指數也都遠遠高於50。只有西班牙這樣的歐元區外圍國家仍處於衰退水準。

您已閱讀33%(904字),剩餘67%(1797字)包含更多重要資訊,訂閱以繼續探索完整內容,並享受更多專屬服務。
版權聲明:本文版權歸FT中文網所有,未經允許任何單位或個人不得轉載,複製或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵權必究。
設置字型大小×
最小
較小
默認
較大
最大
分享×